Thirteen Nights In, the War Starts Showing Up in Fares and Seats

US forces carried out a 13th consecutive night of strikes on Iran, per CENTCOM, as President Trump told Axios he's close to a "massive attack... bigger than ever before" and said Israel could "join in two minutes." IDF's Arabic-language spokesperson and Defense Minister Katz both signaled Israel is fully prepared to resume fighting, promising a "crushing blow" if Iran strikes first, while Iran reportedly rejected an Iraqi-brokered ceasefire. Separately, Mossad said it disrupted an Iranian Intelligence Ministry plot that used criminal intermediaries in France and Iran to recruit operatives able to enter Israel and target senior officials. None of this has closed Ben Gurion or triggered a new advisory today, but the combination — nightly strikes, a stalled ceasefire track, and a foiled infiltration plot — keeps Israel in the highest-volatility tier for near-term bookings. Hold off recommending non-refundable add-ons until the strike campaign shows signs of easing.

IAA director-general Sharon Kedmi warned that continued US Air Force refueling-tanker traffic at Ben Gurion could force cancellation of up to 50,000 tickets in July — roughly 30 flights and 5,000 passengers a day at the margin. IAA chairman Yiftach Ron-Tal publicly disputed him the same day, insisting no flights will be canceled and citing 90,000 daily passengers moving normally, a line the Airports Authority separately reaffirmed. An opposition MK has also warned the government against using security cover to restrict Israelis' return flights ahead of elections. For advisors, the takeaway is a live, unresolved dispute inside the airport authority itself: clients booked through Ben Gurion in the coming weeks should carry flexible rebooking terms, and status should be checked close to departure rather than taken from either official statement at face value.

Brent crude settled above $100 a barrel for the first time since May — up 7% on the day to $100.69, with WTI at $92.19 — after Houthi forces struck two Saudi oil tankers in the Red Sea and shipping through the Strait of Hormuz stayed near a standstill. Goldman Sachs flagged potential for Brent above $120 this quarter if disruption persists. This is a fuel-cost input rather than a booking disruption today, but it's the kind of move that shows up in carrier fuel surcharges within weeks if it holds — El Al and other carriers serving Tel Aviv are exposed given routing length and the region's direct role in the spike. Advisors quoting fares for travel more than a few weeks out should flag surcharge risk to clients rather than treat today's quote as final.

The UK Foreign Office's guidance continues to advise against all travel to Gaza and any area within 500 meters of its border, parts of the West Bank, and areas north of Routes 89/91 near the Golan Heights, and tells British nationals already in Israel to prepare for flight cancellations and periodic airspace closures. None of this is new, but with the Iran conflict still active on a 13th straight night of strikes, it's the baseline advisors should have on file now rather than after an escalation forces the question. It governs insurance validity for UK-originating clients and shapes what itineraries are bookable near the Golan or West Bank margins. Advisors working UK clients should reconfirm which specific areas are excluded before finalizing any itinerary that isn't strictly Tel Aviv/Jerusalem core.

New OECD-sourced figures show Israel's 2025 international arrivals still 71% below 2019 levels — the steepest decline of 53 countries ranked, and dead last. Regional competitors moved the other way: Saudi Arabia is up 67% versus 2019, Egypt up 47%, Morocco up 53%. For advisors, this is a hard number for client and hotel-partner conversations — it explains why Israeli hotels have room to negotiate on rate and availability even in peak season, and why competing Middle East destinations are absorbing demand that once went to Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. It's also useful for setting client expectations: the shortfall is a demand story, not a capacity one, so availability shouldn't be the constraint it was pre-2020, even with security headlines continuing.